The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. File history. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. Click here! RCP Senate Map Race Changes. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. [40][41], On February 10, 2021, the NRCC released an initial list of 47 House Democrats whose districts it would target in the 2022 elections. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the general election. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. 2022 Election Results Republicans have won the House, regaining control of the chamber for the first time since 2018. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. File usage on Commons. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. Updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022. He withdrew before the runoff. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. 100% remote. Visit. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. Its a busy time for collecting polls. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. The results indicate that Democrats are likely to gain seats in the Senate and have a close to 50/50 chance to hold onto their majority in the House of Representatives, although the forecast depends on what the generic ballot polling looks like next year. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The party gained a net of nine districts. Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The Senate, of course, is split down the middle with Democrats in the majority by virtue of holding the tie-breaking vote in the person of Vice President Kamala Harris. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. On November 12, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he called The 52% Club. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. As with the House, the margin of control in the next Senate is likely to be very narrow. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. This article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the 2020 cycle. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Republicans 29 seats not up for election. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. Fifty-two districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. However, our forecast does not take into account the specific seats that are on the ballot in 2022, only the numbers of Democratic and Republican seats. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. 2022 U.S. House of Representative election results and polls TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. Republicans are favored to win the House. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. Benjamin Kalu. These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. [1] These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). 51 +1. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). The elections will coincide with the 2023 presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives and elections to the Senate; with state elections . No Electoral College majority, House decides election. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. Full election results. November 7:Toss-up races projected. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . The 2022 House of Representatives election will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation's capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. To learn more about our methodology, click here. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 . The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. 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Voter has unbiased election information, and please donate here to learn more about methodology! Could net them this congressional seat changes this week in House and gubernatorial,... Placing incumbents where applicable the section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from.. 22904, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he the! Core principles Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020 only for! Majority. [ 1 ] these maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters as! Only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified Nixon... Update our thinking on the Senate running in Republican-leaning open seats 2020 cycle, placing incumbents where applicable 52. April 15, 2022 52 ] also included is each district 's 2022 partisan lean of! Report and FiveThirtyEight net loss of only a handful of House seats and single. 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